Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 571 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 571 · DFW → GRR

departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 571 · DFW → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?