Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

departs 7:07 PM MT · arrives 10:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

MCI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?