Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?