Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 685 · DFW → PDX

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 7:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 685 · DFW → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?