Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 695 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 695 · PHX → ORD

departs 5:58 PM MT · arrives 10:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 695 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?