Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 696 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 696 · PHL → LAX

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 696 · PHL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?