Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 774 · ORD → LGA

departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 774 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?