AA 850 · DFW → SAT

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 6:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 850 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?