AA 883 · ORD → MCO

departs 7:09 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 883 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?