Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 884 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 884 · DFW → LAS

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 6:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 884 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?