AA 939 · DFW → SFO

departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 10:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 939 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?