Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9728 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 9728 · FOE → RDU

departs 3:29 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 3pm departures from FOE are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

FOE (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9728 · FOE → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?