Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 979 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 979 · DFW → RDU

departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 9:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 979 · DFW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?