AA 990 · PHX → ORD

departs 7:05 AM MT · arrives 11:34 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −36 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 990 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?