Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1014 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 1014 · LGA → DTW

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DL's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1014 · LGA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?