Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 11 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 11 · LAX → MEL

departs 9:22 PM PT · arrives 7:26 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MEL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.32 in

MEL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 11 · LAX → MEL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEL?