Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1253
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1253 · JFK → DTW
departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 26%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.