Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 126 · JFK → MAD

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 8:15 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 126 · JFK → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?