Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1274 · MCO → DTW
departs 9:06 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.