Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1275 · TPA → RDU
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.