Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1438 · LAX → SJC
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.30 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.