Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1451 · PHX → SLC
departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 8:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±10 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.78 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 1.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.