Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1475 · LGA → RDU
departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 37%
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 31%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.