Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1513 · BOS → MCO
departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.