Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1518 · ATL → RDU
departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.