Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1616 · ATL → HPN
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 13%
Thu 11/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HPN (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.