Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 1635 · AUS → MCO
departs 3:26 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.