Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1740 · JFK → MCO
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.