Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1834 · TPA → JFK
departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.84 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.