Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1859 · JFK → SJU
departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 12:53 AM AT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SJU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.