Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1860 · ATL → JFK
departs 8:14 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 22%
Thu 11/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.