Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1963 · SEA → PHX
departs 3:40 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 1.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.