Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2154 · LAX → MSY
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 11:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.30 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.