Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 2197 · LAX → SFO

departs 6:53 PM PT · arrives 8:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.26 in

SFO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2197 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?