Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2256
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2256 · SEA → MCI
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 29%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.