Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2433 · LGA → TPA
departs 7:27 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.