Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2604 · DTW → LGA
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 21%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.