Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2613 · SEA → SAN
departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
SEA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.