Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2635 · SEA → SFO
departs 9:39 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 40%
Fri 11/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.