Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2686 · LAX → SAT
departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 11:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 30%
Fri 11/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.26 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.