Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2804 · BOS → ORD
departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 9:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 40%
Tue 11/3 40%
Wed 11/4 41%
Thu 11/5 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.