Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 2851 · SEA → DEN

departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 11:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2851 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?