Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3002 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 3002 · ATL → BNA

departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 8:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 3002 · ATL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?