Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3020 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 3020 · ATL → MEM

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MEM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling267 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 3020 · ATL → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?