Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 406 · BIL → BZN

departs 2:47 PM MT · arrives 3:39 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BZN that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at BIL that day

↑ Other factors

↓ BIL usually runs smoothly

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BIL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.21 in

BZN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 406 · BIL → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?