Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 434 · ATL → LGA

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LGA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 434 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?