Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 807 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 807 · LAS → JFK

departs 3:37 PM PT · arrives 11:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±15 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

JFK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 807 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?