Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 870 · SEA → DFW

departs 5:55 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 870 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?