Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 8845 · DEN → SMF
departs 5:27 PM MT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±10 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.