Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 8846 · HPN → EWR
departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.